In order to facilitate a trade to the Saints, the Texans converted $7.6 million of Roby’s base salary into a signing bonus, a source told ESPN’s Field Yates. When Roby officially gets traded to New Orleans, his base salary for 2021 is now $1,862,645, which fits into the Saints’ salary-cap space.
Roby was a first-round draft pick of the Denver Broncos in 2014. He spent the past two years in Houston and has started 49 career games with 10 interceptions.
The 29-year-old Roby is entering the second year of a three-year, $31.5 million extension that he signed with the Texans last year. He will miss the first game of the season, however, as part of a six-game suspension that began in 2020 for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.
The Saints have identified cornerback as a “must-fill” position ever since they released former starter Janoris Jenkins in March as part of a massive salary-cap purge and then lost one potential starting contender, Patrick Robinson, to a surprise retirement early in training camp. They even attempted to trade up nearly 20 spots in the NFL draft to land top prospects Jaycee Horn or Pat Surtain II.
The New Orleans Saints are finally making the splash move at cornerback that they have been hinting at all offseason, as they are in the process of trading for Houston Texans veteran Bradley Roby, a source confirmed to ESPN.
Terms of the deal, which was first reported by NFL Network, have not been disclosed.
Roby is a former first-round draft pick of the Denver Broncos who spent the past two years in Houston and has started 49 career games with 10 interceptions.
The 29-year-old Roby is due to make $10 million in salary and bonuses this season in the second year of a three-year, $31.5 million extension that he signed with the Texans last year. He will miss the first game of the season, however, as part of a six-game suspension that began in 2020 for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing substances.
The Saints have identified cornerback as a “must-fill” position ever since they released former starter Janoris Jenkins in March as part of a massive salary-cap purge and then lost one potential starting contender, Patrick Robinson, to a surprise retirement early in training camp. They even attempted to trade up nearly 20 spots in the NFL draft to land top prospects Jaycee Horn or Pat Surtain II.
New Orleans signed experienced veteran Desmond Trufant on Monday to compete with Ken Crawley and rookie Paulson Adebo for the No. 2 starting cornerback job across from Pro Bowler Marshon Lattimore. However, Roby now becomes the front-runner to lock down that job following his suspension.
Roby, listed at 5-foot-11, 194 pounds, began his career in a rotation with the Broncos for four seasons before becoming a full-time starter in 2018. He signed a one-year, $10 million contract with the Texans in 2019 that was described as a “prove-it” deal before re-signing with them in 2020.
In 99 career games, Roby has 10 interceptions, 75 passes defensed, eight forced fumbles, four sacks and 311 tackles.
The 2021 NFL season is nearly here, with teams taking on a 17-week slate of games for the first time in history. The season opener is Thursday night, when the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Dallas Cowboys. Our NFL Nation reporters have you covered with intel and projections on all 32 teams ahead of kickoff.
We have big questions: What has to happen for the New England Patriots to get back on top in the AFC East?
We have bold predictions: The Seattle Seahawks were seventh in sacks last season, but we’re predicting they lead the league in 2021.
The Chiefs will make it to a third consecutive Super Bowl and win it for the second time in three years if …
… their offensive line rebuild is as successful as the Chiefs hope. That’s where any growth in the offense is likely to come from as the Chiefs declined to add a significant skill player for the first time in years. Kansas City has to be better in not only protecting QB Patrick Mahomes but in the run game as well. They will likely start five new linemen from last season, including two rookies, another first-year player and a left tackle in Orlando Brown Jr. who is trying to establish himself at a new position.
Gay didn’t have much of an impact as a second-round pick in 2020, but judging from his play at training camp, where he was one of the Chiefs’ better defensive players, that should change this season. Gay should help the Chiefs with one of their defensive weaknesses, which has been in covering backs out of the backfield. He showed good instincts and range in breaking up a number of passes at camp.
Bold prediction: DL Chris Jones will top his career high in sacks (15.5).
Jones is taking well to his position change to defensive end, but he will likely still get a significant number of snaps at his former position on the interior of the line. This should play to his strengths as a pass-rusher. Jones predicted he would lead the NFL in sacks before the 2018 season, and while he fell short, his 15.5 made for a breakout season. Jones is making no similar predictions this year, but look for him to get similar results. — Adam Teicher
… they stay healthy. They are returning all 22 starters on offense and defense after their Super Bowl season, but TEs O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate are still coming back from injuries. Their wide receiving corps was also decimated by injuries last season. That’s only half the battle. A major reason the Bucs won Super Bowl LV was because, as coach Bruce Arians put it, they “beat the virus.” Last season, just four starters — RB Ronald Jones II, LT Donovan Smith, OLB Shaquil Barrett and ILB Devin White — missed a combined six games between the regular season and postseason because of being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
This was actually a toss-up between Bernard and rookie OLB Joe Tryon-Shoyinka. Bernard’s role is more clearly defined right now. Considering how badly the Buccaneers needed a true pass-catching running back last season — they led the NFL with a staggering 15 drops from the running back position — Bernard’s been a breath of fresh air for QB Tom Brady and the Bucs’ screen game. Those two will thrive together, even if Jones and Leonard Fournette are sharing the load on first and second downs.
Bold prediction: WR Antonio Brown will lead the Bucs in receiving yards.
There are a lot of mouths to feed on this Bucs’ offense, including two Pro Bowl wide receivers who happen to make more money than Brown — Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. One year ago, it looked like Brown was done with football after multiple off-field incidents. But since sorting out most of his legal issues and undergoing a knee scope this offseason, Brown has looked unstoppable in practice — aside from a fistfight in the joint practices with the Titans. Keeping his composure will be key. “This is the healthiest he’s been in years,” Arians said. “He’s playing at a speed I saw four or five years ago.” — Jenna Laine
QB Josh Allen will improve upon his MVP runner-up season in 2020 if …
… the Bills’ offensive line stays healthy. Last season, Allen turned in a career year despite a patchwork line that couldn’t get the run game going. With improved offensive line play and the threat of at least a competent run game, Allen and Buffalo’s passing offense will soar in 2021.
The 2020 second-round pick has been nearly unblockable throughout the preseason.
If he can bring consistent pressure this season, it will be a huge boost for a defensive line that was revamped this offseason. Paired with promising rookie Greg Rousseau, Epenesa could be a force moving forward.
Bold prediction: The Bills will win the AFC.
No, that’s not an incomplete sentence — the Bills will win the AFC East and the conference in 2021. Continuity is key in the NFL, and the Bills return 21 starters from last season’s team that was one win from the Super Bowl, as well as the same head coach and coordinators for a fourth straight year. With the sting from last season’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs still fresh in their minds, the Bills will make a Super Bowl appearance for the first time since the 1993 season. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
The Ravens passing game will make the leap from the NFL’s worst if …
… the wide receivers stay healthy, which has been a problem this summer. QB Lamar Jackson‘s top three targets on the outside — Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman and Sammy Watkins — missed a combined 38 practices during the team’s five-week training camp. Bateman, the No. 27 overall draft pick in 2021, had groin surgery during camp and could miss the first month of the season. When playing, they have all stretched the field this summer. The Ravens are banking on Brown, Bateman and Watkins to make defenses pay for stacking the box to slow down their dominant run game.
The Ravens’ prime breakout candidate was RB J.K. Dobbins before he suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason finale. Now, Edwards steps up to get his first chance to become an NFL featured back at the start of a season. He has been among the most consistent runners in the league, averaging over five yards per carry in each of his first three seasons. With the increased role, Edwards has a chance to produce 1,100 yards and close to double-digit touchdowns in the NFL’s most dominant rushing attack.
Bold prediction: Ravens will finish No. 1 in defense.
There’s plenty of buzz about how good the defenses in Pittsburgh and Cleveland will be this season, but the Ravens look primed to have the best defense in the NFL. In three seasons with Don “Wink” Martindale as defensive coordinator, Baltimore has allowed the fewest yards (307.8) and points (18.2) in the league. The biggest question mark surrounding this defense had been the pass rush. But the Ravens signed Justin Houston (97.5 career sacks) and used a first-round pick on Odafe Oweh, who could be the fastest edge rusher in franchise history. This defense has the potential to be scary. — Jamison Hensley
Aaron Rodgers will be back as the Packers’ quarterback in 2022 if …
… hell freezes over. OK, that might be a tad strong, but everything about this season is setting up as a last hurrah. The Packers voided the 2023 season on Rodgers contract specifically to appease his desire to control where he plays in 2022. It is now an easy out for both parties. Also, the Packers are in a brutal salary-cap situation for next year and moving on from Rodgers would alleviate some of the problem.
Cue up the Week 16 film from last season against the Titans when Dillon rushed 21 times for 124 yards and two touchdowns. That accounted for more than half of Dillon’s rushing yards for his entire rookie season. With Jamaal Williams gone, Dillon steps into the RB2 role. The Packers have always tried to keep Aaron Jones fresh, so Dillon should get plenty more chances in year two.
Field Yates and Stephania Bell weigh up AJ Dillon’s fantasy value as he competes with Aaron Jones for run options.
Bold prediction: Rodgers will go out on top with a Super Bowl victory.
After two straight NFC title game losses the last two seasons, Rodgers will finally play well in a conference championship game, and get the Packers back to the Super Bowl. And when they win it, it will be the perfect end for Rodgers’ time in Green Bay. He can then pull a Tom Brady and try to do it again somewhere else. — Rob Demovsky
The Browns’ defense will be one of the AFC’s best if …
… DE Jadeveon Clowney stays healthy and plays up to his potential. Clowney has always had the talent, but the 2014 No. 1 overall pick has continually struggled with injuries. Clowney seems healthy again and starred early on in training camp. The Browns already boast one elite pass-rusher in DE Myles Garrett. If Clowney gives them another, the Browns defense will be among the AFC’s best.
The Browns have plenty of firepower at wide receiver, headlined by Pro Bowlers Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry. Peoples-Jones was the MVP of training camp, flashing a strong rapport with QB Baker Mayfield. Because of Cleveland’s powerful running game, its impressive array of tight ends and the star power of OBJ and Landry, Peoples-Jones probably won’t put up big numbers this season. But the 2020 sixth-round pick out of Michigan could emerge into a key option for Mayfield in Cleveland’s underrated passing attack.
Field Yates and Matthew Berry break down Donovan Peoples-Jones’ numbers and if he is a fantasy sleeper.
Bold prediction: Cleveland’s defense will be among the league’s most improved.
With eight new defensive starters, the Browns might struggle defensively for the first month or so of the season. But down the stretch, Cleveland will boast one the five best defenses in the league, elevating the Browns into a legitimate Super Bowl contender. — Jake Trotter
DT Aaron Donald becomes the third defensive player to win MVP if …
… he breaks Hall of Fame defensive end Michael Strahan’s single-season sacks record of 22.5, the Rams’ defense ranks among the best in the NFL and the Rams make a dominant run to Super Bowl LVI. Yes, Donald and the Rams must achieve all of that for the three-time Defensive Player of the Year to win MVP. Look at it this way, the last non-quarterback to win MVP was Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson in 2012. To find the last defensive player who won MVP, you must go back 34 years to when New York Giants outside linebacker Lawrence Taylor won the award. In 2018, Donald had 20.5 sacks, the most ever by an interior lineman, as the Rams went 13-3 and made a Super Bowl run — and still didn’t win the award.
Jefferson flashed and appeared mature beyond his years as a rookie throughout training camp last season, but he made minimal impact on the offense with 19 receptions for 220 yards and a touchdown. Jefferson admitted his head was spinning last season, but he now has a firm grasp on the playbook and feels more comfortable in his Season 2. With a consistent connection established throughout camp with new QB Matthew Stafford, coupled with the Rams’ plan to monitor veteran WR DeSean Jackson‘s workload, watch for Jefferson to make a splash in an offense that’s preparing to put up big numbers.
Bold prediction: The Rams will appear in Super Bowl LVI.
With three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Donald and All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey anchoring the defending top-ranked defense — plus the acquisition of Stafford in a gutsy offseason trade that sent former No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff, two first-round picks and a third-round pick to the Detroit Lions — the Rams are ready to make their second Super Bowl run over the past four seasons. And what better time to do it than 2021, with the Super Bowl being played inside SoFi Stadium — Rams owner Stan Kroenke’s $5 billion masterpiece — on Feb. 13. — Lindsey Thiry
… 11. It could easily happen sooner, but this feels about right. Predicting the health of starter Jimmy Garoppolo is difficult, so let’s operate under the assumption that Garoppolo stays healthy and plays well enough to hold the job through the Week 6 bye. A change for Week 7 is plausible, but the Niners should have a winning record going into that game. Out of the bye week, the Niners play the Colts, Bears, Cardinals and Rams, which could bring some bumps and bruises — setting the stage for Lance to take over. Lance will have played plenty situationally by then, and things should have slowed down enough for him to take the controls for what the Niners hope is a stretch run to the postseason.
Aiyuk flashed plenty of potential as a rookie, but he played in only 12 games because of an early hamstring injury and a late stint on the COVID-19 list. A bulked-up Aiyuk established himself as a favorite target of all San Francisco quarterbacks during camp, catching almost everything thrown his way — save for a couple of hiccups in preseason games. With a full offseason under his belt, Aiyuk has all the ingredients to become the Niners’ No. 1 wideout.
Bold prediction: DE Dee Ford will have at least eight sacks.
The 49ers aren’t counting on Ford for anything after he missed all but one game last season because of a back injury. But Ford has slowly been rounding back into form in training camp, and showed his usual burst off the edge. If Ford is healthy, he won’t be asked to play more than roughly 20 snaps per game, but those should put him in position to do what he does best and get after the quarterback. — Nick Wagoner
… three things happen: 1. His pass protection improves; 2. He likes the way he fits in Seattle’s new offense; 3. The Seahawks make it to at least the NFC Championship Game. Otherwise, Wilson might have a hard time believing that the arrow is pointing up for himself and for the team, which hasn’t gotten past the divisional round in its last five playoff appearances. Wilson likes the fast tempo of new coordinator Shane Waldron’s offense and should take fewer hits with more of an emphasis on short and intermediate throws. He also likes having newcomer Gabe Jackson at right guard. But his pass protection will suffer if LT Duane Brown misses games amid his contract dispute.
Last year’s first-round pick quietly had a strong rookie season, even though it didn’t include as many splash plays as fellow rookie Patrick Queen of the Ravens. The Seahawks took Brooks over Queen at No. 27 because they felt he was better built and just as fast. But even when he became a starter early in the year, Brooks didn’t get enough of a chance to show that speed. He regularly came off the field on third down because Seattle’s coaching staff preferred K.J. Wright‘s experience. With Wright gone, more playing time for Brooks will mean more of an opportunity to break out in 2021.
Bold prediction: The Seahawks will lead the NFL in sacks.
They led the league in sacks over the final 12 weeks of last season and return all but one of their top pass-rushers from that group. The addition of DE Kerry Hyder Jr. in free agency, and DE Darrell Taylor‘s return from his lost rookie season, should be more than enough to make up for Jarran Reed‘s departure. With Taylor taking over at strongside linebacker and a scheme adjustment to their defensive front, the Seahawks will have an extra pass-rushing threat on the field most of the time. — Brady Henderson
… the defense — which has been stocked with a decisive upgrade in talent — finishes among the NFL’s top five in points allowed. For all the focus that was on the team’s QB competition, the defense has the potential to be the backbone of the team — assuming a lack of depth in the secondary doesn’t come back to haunt it.
There have been times in training camp and preseason when Uche was the most disruptive player on the field, such as one day against the Giants in late August when he was consistently creating pressure. The 2020 second-round pick from Michigan has some experienced linebackers around him in Dont’a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy, Ja’Whaun Bentley and Matt Judon, and that should help him key in on a specific role that allows him to create havoc.
Bold prediction: QB Mac Jones will win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The No. 15 overall pick has come a long way in a short time. The things he is doing as a rookie running the Patriots’ traditional system — such as setting protections and calling audibles — are next-level stuff. One excellent preseason practice against the New York Giants, in particular, stood out as a preview of what could be coming. — Mike Reiss
Tua Tagovailoa keeps his job as the Dolphins’ starting quarterback if …
… his play from the preseason carries into the regular season. Tagovailoa has looked confident, decisive and comfortable entering his second year in the league, something the Dolphins will need if they are to make the playoffs in a loaded AFC. Tagovailoa needs to remain aggressive and display the ability to win games with his arm when needed. The Dolphins will be sitting at home again in January if he is a game manager in 2021.
Although last season was a breakout of sorts for Gesicki, the chemistry he built with Tagovailoa this preseason has been palpable. Even after a 700-yard, six-touchdown performance in 2020, Gesicki officially breaks out as one of the league’s best receiving tight ends in 2021.
Bold prediction: The Dolphins will win a playoff game.
Miami hasn’t made the playoffs since 2015 and came one win short last season. The franchise has not won a playoff game since 2000. But the Dolphins’ defense features an elite secondary that could make life trouble for opposing quarterbacks on any given week. And that, combined with Tagovailoa leading an upstart offense, helps Miami break both playoff streaks in 2021. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
The Titans can rise above other AFC title contenders if …
… the defense can show improvement in third-down conversions allowed, red zone defense and sacks. S Kevin Byard said the defensive backs are focused on being aggressive challenging receivers at the line of scrimmage. The additions of LB Bud Dupree, DE Denico Autry and LB Rashad Weaver should improve the pass rush and allow the Titans to get pressure with the front four. Defensive coordinator Shane Bowen seems willing to blitz a lot more as well. The three words that are consistently mentioned as an area of focus for the defense are confidence, communication and urgency.
Hooker is coming off a season in which he posted four interceptions as a reserve safety. The third-year veteran enters as a starter along with Byard. Defensive backs coach Scott Booker said he has seen Hooker become more comfortable within the defense and he has shown he is capable of being a leader on the team. Hooker’s ball skills have been on display throughout training camp, including his interception of Buccaneers QB Tom Brady during joint practices.
The NFL hasn’t had a team with two 1,000-yard receivers and a 1,500-yard rusher since the 2006 St. Louis Rams. But defenses have to pick their poison against the Titans. If they focus on stopping the run, Jones and Brown will see a lot of single coverage. The Titans haven’t had two 1,000-yard receivers since Derrick Mason (1,168 yards) and Drew Bennett (1,247) in 2004. Conversely, committing extra defenders to stop the passing game means fewer players in the box, which makes it easier for the offensive line to open up rushing lanes for Henry. — Turron Davenport
The Saints will commit to QB Jameis Winston as their starter beyond this season if …
… he reminds everyone what made him so special in the first place. The former No. 1 pick and Heisman Trophy winner is still just 27 years old. He has a great opportunity for a Ryan Tannehill-like renaissance now that he is surrounded by one of the NFL’s best offensive minds, offensive lines and defenses. Turnovers obviously derailed Winston’s career in Tampa, but he and coach Sean Payton have insisted he will play a smarter brand of football this time around.
There is some risk of overhype here, since Callaway could go back to a No. 2 or 3 WR role once Michael Thomas and Tre’Quan Smith are healthy. But the second-year pro has taken full advantage of his temp job as a WR1 on a consistent basis throughout the summer — highlighted by two incredible deep TD catches from Winston in the Saints’ second preseason game. The 6-2, 204-pounder is clearly poised for a big role after showing flashes as an undrafted rookie in 2020.
Stephania Bell expects Michael Thomas to be available for the Saints in Week 7.
The Saints let DE Trey Hendrickson go in free agency after his unexpected 13.5-sack breakout last season. But Jordan and Davenport should make up for the loss. Davenport, a first-round pick in 2018, looks poised for a breakout season if he can finally stay healthy. And Jordan, a six-time Pro Bowler, should be able to bounce back from a surprisingly quiet 7.5 sacks in 2020. — Mike Triplett
Coordinator Dan Quinn gets the Cowboys’ defense back to respectability if …
… LB Micah Parsons can handle all the Cowboys are asking of him. The 2021 No. 12 overall pick is lining up at middle linebacker, making the calls and checks, while also being used as an edge rusher. His versatility could free up others on defense, such as edge rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory, and Leighton Vander Esch or Keanu Neal at linebacker. That’s a lot of responsibility to put on a rookie, but he has shown he can be that player. Of course, having a high-scoring offense will make it easier for the Cowboys’ defense to climb back to respectability, too.
Would Lamb really qualify as a breakout star? He had 74 catches for 935 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie, and he is a first-round draft pick, so people should know him. But he could do so much more, especially in a full season with QB Dak Prescott. He caught at least five passes in all of Prescott’s five starts and had two 100-yard games. The duo’s lack of work in training camp together isn’t that concerning because of how well they clicked last season without any real offseason or preseason games.
If that’s not bold, especially after Elliott ran for 979 yards last season, what is? Many assume he is on the downside of his career after he signed his $90 million contract, and has been passed on the list of best running backs by guys such as Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook or others. With Prescott missing a lot of training camp and four preseason games with a latissimus strain, Elliott needs to be a featured part of the attack. And with the returns of Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and La’el Collins, the offensive line is on a mission to reclaim its spot as one of the best in the NFL, too. In their first six games, the Cowboys face four run defenses that ranked outside the top half of the league in 2020. — Todd Archer
… make the postseason. Minnesota has not missed the playoffs in back-to-back years since Zimmer was hired in 2014, so it’s critical for the head coach’s job security that the Vikings are playing well into January. It doesn’t matter how they get there — whether Zimmer’s defense bounces back after they poured millions into overhauling the roster this offseason or QB Kirk Cousins and the offense lead the way. All that matters for Zimmer’s future in Minnesota is getting to the postseason.
With Irv Smith Jr. expected to miss the entire 2021 season while recovering from knee surgery, his tight end counterpart will have even more opportunities to stand out. Conklin, who is entering a contract year, caught 15 of 21 targets in the final four games last season, showing promise beyond his role as a blocker. The Vikings utilize sets with two tight ends often, so expect Conklin to be consistently involved in the offense. Even coach Mike Zimmer sees an expanded role for the former fifth-round pick. “He’s kind of emerged as a guy that’s moving upward,” Zimmer said this offseason.
Bold prediction: WR Adam Thielen will lead the Vikings in receiving touchdowns.
Justin Jefferson put the NFL on notice as a rookie, so you can expect even more attention geared toward the second-year wide receiver in 2021. The more teams key in on Jefferson, the more opportunities Thielen will have to shine as Cousins’ No. 1 target. Thielen had a career-best 14 touchdowns last season. He will top that number in 2021, given how few receiving options the Vikings have outside of their top two receivers, and how comfortable Cousins is finding Thielen in the red zone. — Courtney Cronin
Even if QB Carson Wentz and G Quenton Nelson miss games due to injuries, the defense is strong enough to carry the Colts to a winning record if …
… the unit forces a lot of turnovers to give the offense, which would be led by QBs Jacob Eason or Sam Ehlinger (currently injured), a short field to work with because the Colts will be missing two of their three most important offensive players. The defense has a goal of forcing at least 40 turnovers this season. There is no better time to try to reach that goal than facing offenses led by QBs Russell Wilson (Seahawks), Matthew Stafford (Rams), Ryan Tannehill (Titans), Tua Tagovailoa (Dolphins) and Lamar Jackson (Ravens). The Colts finished fifth in the NFL in takeaways last season with 25.
Depth isn’t an issue at receiver for the Colts, but Pittman is the one who stands out the most at that position. Pittman had a solid rookie season in 2020 — 503 receiving yards in 13 games. Now, he is ready to take the next step of passing veteran T.Y. Hilton as the team’s No. 1 receiver, especially with Hilton currently sidelined by a neck injury. Pittman’s combination of speed, strength and size (6-foot-4) makes him a tough cover for smaller defensive backs. He was the most consistent receiver during training camp for the Colts.
Bold prediction: Wentz will play all 17 regular-season games and have a career-high completion percentage.
Yes, Wentz has played every regular-season game only twice, and he’s recovering from foot surgery, and he was benched after playing 12 games last season in Philadelphia. But Wentz and Colts coach Frank Reich know this is a prove-it point in the quarterback’s career after flaming out with the Eagles. Wentz’s highest season completion percentage was in 2018, when he completed 69.6% of his passes. Andrew Luck and Jacoby Brissett both had their best completion seasons under Reich. Philip Rivers had the second-highest percentage of his 17-year career last season. Now it’s Wentz’s turn to do it under Reich. — Mike Wells
… the offensive line improves from last season. With an almost all-new cast — or at least different players in different roles — the Steelers are trying to improve a line that was one of the worst in the league a season ago. But injuries at tackle and left guard and a two-practice absence at center kept the starting group from fully practicing as a unit until the week before the third preseason game against Detroit. The line performed well in that game, and if they can hold up and protect Roethlisberger throughout the season, the 39-year-old can continue to turn back the clock.
The Steelers could start three offensive rookies in Week 1: Freiermuth, RB Najee Harris and C Kendrick Green. While Harris is an obvious breakout candidate, Freiermuth isn’t far behind. He had a two-touchdown performance against the Lions, and afterward, Roethlisberger jokingly told the media to stop talking about him so he could stay under wraps a little bit longer. Good luck with that.
Freiermuth drew comparisons to TE Rob Gronkowski in high school and college, but he reminds Roethlisberger and the Steelers faithful of another dominant tight end: Heath Miller. Freiermuth earned accolades for his blocking, but he could also be a fierce red zone threat. In a Matt Canada offense that heavily utilizes tight ends, Freiermuth is poised for a big rookie season.
Bold prediction: The Steelers will win a playoff game.
Hear me out. Yes, the Steelers have the toughest schedule in the NFL, and they’re playing in a division that has only grown stronger since last season. But they’ve done well to fill the holes on the roster — adding LB Melvin Ingram III and OL Trai Turner before camp and trading for LB Joe Schobert during the preseason. Winning their first playoff game since 2016 is doable if the offensive line keeps Roethlisberger upright and opens holes for Harris, and the defense, led by T.J. Watt, returns to the dominating form it had prior to ACL injuries to LBs Bud Dupree and Devin Bush. — Brooke Pryor
The Chargers finally gain a foothold in the Los Angeles market if …
… QB Justin Herbert stays healthy and expands on his NFL rookie-record 31 touchdown passes. It will help if he’s kept upright by an offensive line that went through an overhaul this offseason and the defense holds leads better. The Chargers lost four games last season in which they held double-digit leads, and have 16 one-score losses over the past two seasons.
Tillery, a first-round pick of the Chargers in 2019, says he’s in the best shape of his life. He should excel in coach Brandon Staley’s new defensive scheme. He spent the summer working out with a trainer in Hawaii and has taken off some weight. Tillery, who had five sacks combined in his first two seasons, said he worked on footwork and getting faster at everything.
With the loss of LB Melvin Ingram III, the Chargers need another pass-rush threat to complement LB Joey Bosa — Tillery, who had 14 quarterback hits last season, could be it.
Field Yates calls Chargers QB Justin Herbert a “phenomenal value” for fantasy managers.
Bold prediction: The Chargers will make the playoffs — and maybe win the division title.
Staley has reenergized this group, which enters the season healthy. Major injuries have struck the Chargers in training camp in the past, so improved health, a maturing Herbert at quarterback and the addition of a coach who led the Rams to the NFL’s No. 1 defense last season will pave the way for a Chargers breakthrough. — Shelley Smith
The Broncos will not be quarterback shopping this offseason if …
… they win a playoff game. But even if they don’t, there is a caveat: They won’t add just anyone. They’ll take a long look at who is actually available on the market (What say you, Packers and Aaron Rodgers?) and the draft before committing to move on.
There is some hesitation in declaring Jeudy a breakout candidate because his rookie season was already very good (52 catches for 856 yards). He did have one really bad afternoon against the Chargers (five drops), but was hampered by poor quarterback play, somewhat choppy playcalling and receiver Courtland Sutton‘s knee injury, which allowed defenses to put some No. 1 corners in front of him. His routes are too good, his work ethic too strong; 2021 is going to be a big year.
Field Yates and Stephania Bell detail what it will take for Jerry Jeudy to find success in Denver this season.
Bold prediction: The Broncos will make the playoffs — barely.
If they have the injuries or turnovers they had last season (they led the league in giveaways), this ain’t happening. But quietly, under the cover of a quarterback competition that has attracted all the attention, they have assembled a talented roster with some depth, much better team speed and, potentially, a hellacious defense. That has been a playoff recipe for the Broncos in the past. — Jeff Legwold
DE Chase Young becomes one of the league’s top five edge rushers if …
… his game matures faster than anticipated. Young is healthier entering the season than he was in 2020, when his hip bothered him for half his rookie year. He also has a lot of talent around him, including fellow end Montez Sweat, who could take some sacks away but should also help Young get some favorable matchups.
Why not? Young is the obvious breakout candidate, but Sweat gets a bit lost in the attention paid to Young, and that will change. Sweat has had a terrific camp and continues to mature as a pass-rusher. He went from seven sacks as a rookie to nine last season and should reside in that 12-15 range this season.
Bold prediction: Washington will repeat as NFC East champs.
Nobody has done this since 2004, but why not now? Washington improved its offense in the offseason with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who might not be great, but he’s an upgrade. But it was more than just him as the team added multiple weapons at receiver, including Curtis Samuel. Defensively, Washington will be challenged by a much tougher slate of opposing quarterbacks (six finished among the top 11 in Total QBR last season). But it has one of the best lines in football and added speed and more diverse coverage — notably CB William Jackson III — in the back seven. More importantly, the players have bought into this coaching staff and what it’s trying to build. — John Keim
… the Cardinals are a serious playoff contender. That could mean 4,000 passing yards and 700-plus rushing yards while accounting for 45 or more touchdowns — at the minimum. Murray must also find a way to stay healthy
The rookie out of Purdue has shown signs of brilliance during training camp, but that doesn’t mean his success will translate to the regular season. There’s something different about Moore, though. He seems to have the total package: speed, quickness, hands, strength and IQ. With so much defensive attention on Murray and WRs DeAndre Hopkins and A.J. Green, Moore could be the guy who surprises everyone.
Bold prediction: Green will reach 1,000 receiving yards.
Green has never been a No. 2 receiver in his career — always a No. 1. That means he has always been the focal point of the defense, always was double-teamed, always had the coverage rolled to him. That’s not the case this season playing alongside Hopkins. Green will benefit from that, and a big season could be in his future. — Josh Weinfuss
… 7, at the absolute latest. The writing is on the wall. Fields will eventually take the starting job from Andy Dalton, who probably does not have a very long leash. The Bears are making the correct decision by keeping Fields on the bench to begin the year, but they will soon have no choice but to start the rookie. The switch is inevitable.
Mooney finished fifth among NFL rookie wide receivers with 61 catches last season. The bar is set even higher in 2021. Mooney is now the unquestioned No. 2 receiver after Allen Robinson II and will be counted on to have even better numbers in Year 2. Mooney’s blazing speed is a dangerous threat that Chicago quarterbacks can utilize all season.
Coach Matt Nagy wants Montgomery to carry the football 20 times per game. I’m taking Nagy at his word, even though Chicago has occasionally abandoned the run in recent years. Montgomery is too good to ignore — the Bears have to feed him. If the Bears once again become one-dimensional on offense, forget about it. There is too much at stake for that to happen. — Jeff Dickerson
Burns led the Panthers in sacks last season with nine, but he came oh-so-close to many more. With the addition of edge rusher Haason Reddick — Burns didn’t have a potent rusher opposite him last season — teams won’t be able to shift the protection to his side as easily. As Burns has said repeatedly this preseason, opponents will need to “pick your poison.” Don’t be surprised to see him get 13-15 sacks and show off his patented “Spider-Man” pose even more.
Bold prediction: Darnold will have a winning record.
Darnold is a dreadful 13-25 as a starter in his career — including 2-10 in 2020. He has the talent around him to make the Panthers a playoff contender if he plays slightly above average. That likely won’t result in a record much higher than .500, but at this point, that would be like winning the Super Bowl for the third pick of the 2018 draft. — David Newton
First-year coach Arthur Smith will field a top-10 offense if …
… the offensive line doesn’t stink. The Falcons have the skill-position players to be dynamic offensively, but if QB Matt Ryan doesn’t have protection and holes can’t stay open more than microseconds for RB Mike Davis, the Falcons will struggle to move the ball. They have four legitimate receiving options and two mismatch nightmares in WR Calvin Ridley and TE Kyle Pitts, but if Ryan is under pressure too often, they won’t be nearly as effective.
The jump for cornerbacks from their rookie year to second season is always a fairly large one, but Terrell has all the makings of a top-end cover corner. He has fantastic instincts, good speed and strong recovery skills. On an Atlanta defense needing playmakers beyond Grady Jarrett and Deion Jones, Terrell has the chance to be special and give the Falcons a future Pro Bowl corner. The potential is that strong.
Fowler has reached this milestone only once in his career (11.5 sacks in 2019 with the Rams), but he has the benefit now of playing in a pressure-happy defense run by Dean Pees. And if opponents can’t predict where pressure is coming from, that could leave more solo matchups for Fowler, who is the most explosive off-the-ball pass-rusher Atlanta has. Plus, there’s motivation here. Fowler took a pay cut this offseason after a subpar 2020 (three sacks) in which he played at least part of the season hurt. Pride plus incentives could lead to a strong year. — Mike Rothstein
Coach Jon Gruden ends the year on the hot seat if …
… Las Vegas pulls another fold job down the stretch. The Raiders started 6-4 in 2019, only to finish 7-9, and were 6-3 last season before ending up 8-8. Gruden might have the most job security in the league with a 10-year contract signed in 2018, but another pratfall would raise more than eyebrows and hackles. Counting his time in Tampa Bay, Gruden’s teams are just 31-45 in December and January (15-23 with the Raiders), and that’s counting the Buccaneers’ Super Bowl run in 2002.
As the first wideout drafted in a historically deep 2020 class for receivers, Ruggs should have already made his imprint, no? Well, injury and ineffectiveness limited him to 26 catches for 452 yards and two touchdowns in 13 games as a rookie. Now, he has gained muscle without losing any of his speed and has, perhaps most importantly, gained the trust of QB Derek Carr. Expect more than the occasional deep ball, then, as well as slants and plays in space to let Ruggs create.
Bold prediction: The Raiders will get into the playoffs.
The Raiders’ offense will cook, as expected, with skill-position weapons all around for Carr as the rebuilt offensive line gives him enough protection to stay clean and comfortable. The returning defense, meanwhile, will mature and be just good enough to prevent another late-season collapse. And Las Vegas, buoyed by a raucous home-field advantage (two of the Raiders’ last three games are at home against division rivals Denver and L.A.), will win more December and January games than it loses. Hence, a wild-card berth that will mark only the franchise’s second postseason appearance since 2002. — Paul Gutierrez
Daniel Jones cements his role as the Giants’ long-term quarterback if …
… he has RB Saquon Barkley and WR Kenny Golladay playing alongside him the entire season. All the tools are there for Jones to be successful. His teammates, coaches and the front office are convinced he’s going to be a quality starting quarterback. All he needs is the support. A star running back who keeps defensive coordinators up at night and a big wide receiver who can go up and get the football are exactly what Jones needs.
His rookie year was stunted by foot surgery that forced him to miss the first 10 games of the season. But when he returned, McKinney flashed the talent that made him a second-round pick. Now healthy in his second season, expect him to play a significant role as the third safety on a good defense. The Giants are going to find ways to get him on the field, and it will result in a handful of interceptions.
Bold prediction: Jones will throw for more than 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns.
This is the year the polarizing quarterback cements himself as a high-end starter. He will need to nearly triple the 11 touchdown passes he threw last season to make this prediction hold up. Jones will also cut down on his turnovers with the help of Barkley, receivers Golladay and Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram. It’s not the MVP-worthy leap Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) pulled off last season in his third year, but Jones’ version would nonetheless thrill Giants fans. — Jordan Raanan
This season will be considered a success for the Bengals if …
… they are in the playoff hunt at the start of December. The Bengals’ final stretch of games in each of the past two seasons have had zero bearing on the AFC North standings. Cincinnati suffered losses that ended up laying the foundation for key parts of the rebuilding process: first-round QB Joe Burrow (2019) and first-round WR Ja’Marr Chase (2020). This is the third year of the rebuilding process. It’s time to see whether the Bengals have truly done enough to overhaul the roster. At this point, there’s no reason the Bengals shouldn’t be in the playoff discussion when December begins.
It’s hard to call the team’s leading receiver from 2020 (67 catches, 908 yards) a breakout candidate, but Higgins has a very high ceiling. The team’s second-round pick in 2020 battled a hamstring injury throughout the season and, after declaring for the NFL a year early, an adjustment to the pros during a pandemic. Now, as a second-year player, Higgins looks like a true outside receiver and has the potential to lead Cincinnati in key receiving categories again.
Bold prediction: Burrow will have over 5,000 passing yards.
In each of the past three offseasons, Cincinnati has added a key piece to its passing attack. Now healthy and with (hopefully for his sake) a better offensive line, Burrow has three wide receivers who arguably could be top options on other NFL rosters. Between that, coach Zac Taylor’s offensive ideology and RB Joe Mixon‘s effectiveness in the passing game, it’s not unreasonable to predict Burrow will hit the 5,000-yard mark in a 17-game season. — Ben Baby
QB Jalen Hurts will be the Eagles’ starter for all of the regular season if …
… he stays healthy. Hurts took all the first-team reps during training camp and is the clear No. 1 ahead of Joe Flacco and Gardner Minshew II. His teammates have taken notice of his leadership, work ethic and steady improvement, and are buying in. The Eagles will have as many as three first-round picks in next year’s draft, resources they can use to acquire their QB of the future in case they’re not sold on Hurts, but he should have the 2021 season to prove he’s the player for the job.
Watkins, a sixth-round draft pick out of Southern Miss in 2020, was the Eagles’ best wide receiver this summer by a healthy margin. His 4.35-second 40-yard dash time was on full display during his 79-yard catch-and-run touchdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the preseason opener. He showed similar playmaking skills during training camp and in the joint practices against the New England Patriots and New York Jets, where he proved to be a tough cover. Watkins figures to be one of the division’s more electric players this season and will shoot well past his 2020 rookie stat line (seven catches, 106 yards, 1 TD).
Bold prediction: DE Josh Sweat will be among the NFL sack leaders.
Sweat, 24, believes he is on the verge of a career season. His play this summer suggests he’s right. Sweat had one of the best training camps of anyone on the Eagles, routinely knifing into the backfield to get after the quarterback. There were questions about longevity when Sweat was drafted in 2018 because of a brutal left knee injury in high school, but he looks healthy entering Year 4 and has added strength to go along with improved technique. He posted a personal-best six sacks last season and could soar into double digits in 2021 if all goes well. — Tim McManus
… offensive tackles Cam Robinson and Jawaan Taylor play better than they did in 2020. The two combined to give up 27 sacks last year, including an NFL-high 18 by Taylor, per ESPN Stats & Information. Lawrence has the arm strength, moxie and football IQ to be a standout quarterback, but it’ll be a rough season if he’s having to run for his life every week.
The second-year player is bigger and stronger than he was as a rookie, and that has been evident throughout camp and the preseason. Hamilton has been hard to move and has consistently gotten into the backfield during camp, and people inside the organization believe he’s on the verge of becoming one of the league’s better nose tackles.
Field Yates breaks down Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy value for the upcoming season.
Bold prediction: Trevor Lawrence will set the rookie TD passing record.
Chargers QB Justin Herbert holds the mark with 31 last season, but Lawrence will surpass that mainly because the Jaguars are going to be playing catch-up in a lot of games. Even with the loss of Travis Etienne Jr. to a Lisfranc injury, the Jaguars have a good group of pass-catchers that includes Marvin Jones Jr. and DJ Chark Jr., so Lawrence has enough weapons to become just the second rookie quarterback in NFL history to surpass 30 touchdowns. — Michael DiRocco
Coach Robert Saleh’s first season with the Jets will be considered a success if …
… Zach Wilson establishes himself as the long-term answer at quarterback. Sure, wins are important, especially when the team is trying to rebuild a losing culture, but this season is all about the rookie and his development. Wilson has a better chance to succeed than predecessor Sam Darnold. Not only does Wilson have better talent around him, but he will have a chance to grow with a new coaching staff and new program. That wasn’t the case with Darnold.
Former Ole Miss teammate and current Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown said recently he would “bet all my game checks” that Moore wins Offensive Rookie of the Year. Farfetched? Maybe a little, but Moore has a chance to be really good as a rookie. He’s an advanced route runner with terrific acceleration and an uncommon feel for the game. Coaches and teammates talk about him as if he has been around for a few years. Moore, more than a slot receiver, will be used in a variety of ways and will see significant playing time.
Bold prediction: Wilson will become the franchise’s first quarterback since Joe Namath (1967) to throw for 4,000 yards.
Disclaimer: Namath had 4,007 yards in a 14-game season, Wilson will have 17 games. Yes, he’s a rookie, and rookies tend to struggle, but it’s not unreasonable to think he can end the 53-year drought. All it takes is 235 yards per game, close to the 2020 league average (240). The plan is to be balanced on offense, leaning on the running game more than most, but the Jets figure to be in a lot of late-game, catch-up situations. The kid can definitely sling it. If he stays upright and healthy, he will join Broadway Joe as the only two quarterbacks in team history to reach the elusive 4,000-yard milestone. — Rich Cimini
Coach Dan Campbell’s first season as coach will be considered a success if …
… the team wins five or more games. For many other franchises, this may seem like a joke, but Campbell is tasked with taking over an organization that showed little life last season. If he can recharge this bunch and at least begin to shift the culture with a competitive squad, it’ll be a success. Nobody is expecting him to come in and reach the playoffs this year — or even next year — but he has to get the franchise moving in the right direction, and that’ll start with at least matching last season’s win total and possibly surpassing it.
It’s no secret that Okudah didn’t live up to expectations after being taken with the third overall pick in 2020. But the new coaching staff, notably DBs coach Aubrey Pleasant, is looking to get the most out of him, not only physically but mentally as well. Okudah was put in a tough situation last season, being placed primarily in man-to-man coverage, but he has studied his strengths and weaknesses this offseason and is ready for a breakout.
The receiving corps in Detroit this season is very much unproven. One guy who isn’t is Hockenson, who made the Pro Bowl for the first time last season. New quarterback Jared Goff is already building great chemistry with Hockenson, who put in a ton of work this offseason. Hockenson trained in Nashville, Tennessee, alongside his close friend and former Iowa teammate George Kittle to prep for a bigger role. Last season, Hockenson finished with 67 catches for 723 yards. Barring injuries, he should easily top that mark. — Eric Woodyard
The first season under coach David Culley will be a success if …
… the Texans get the No. 1 overall pick. The Texans’ realistic goal for this season isn’t to win a Super Bowl, and the moves made by GM Nick Caserio reflect that. The focus of the franchise over the next year needs to be finding its quarterback of the future and adding as many draft picks and young players as it can to build around that player.
The Texans need to replace J.J. Watt’s production and find someone who can get to the quarterback. That might be Omenihu, who is entering his third season. Playing just 19 snaps in the Texans’ second preseason game, he had two sacks and recovered a fumble. Omenihu is moving around the defensive line and should be a difference-maker in 2021.
Bold prediction: WR Brandin Cooks will have 1,000 receiving yards.
Sure, Cooks has hit that mark five times in his seven NFL seasons. But this time he’s being asked to do it without QB Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball and without another top receiver to take attention away from him. This will be the hardest season for Cooks to eclipse 1,000 yards, but he does it while catching passes from QBs Tyrod Taylor and Davis Mills. — Sarah Barshop
Combined, those 20,000 simulations — which, in the preseason, use expected starting quarterbacks, past performance, returning starters and projected win totals to generate a strength rating for every team — give us a good idea of what we think will happen, but nothing ever goes to plan. Surprises happen every year, and every team can win on any given Sunday. So we’re running from the safe haven of our projections and looking at just one of the simulations.
We played out every single game of that simulation to give us one plausible outcome for the 2021 season. That means projected winners and losers for every regular-season game, potential division-race storylines, surprise contenders and a look at how the 13 playoff games might play out. From it all, we get a drought-ending Super Bowl LVI winner and a top-five draft order for 2022 that comes with a bit of a shocker.
Will it all happen this way? It could. But again, this is just one single simulation. To put some context on the results, we applied some creative license, detailing potential breakout stars, quarterback controversies and more. Let’s dive in, with 12 big takeaways from how it all went down.
Jacksonville Jaguars rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence kicked off his NFL career in a way that resembled his college career: winning. Coach Urban Meyer’s team took advantage of a soft schedule out of the gate, beating Houston, Denver and Arizona to start the season before dropping a game to the Bengals. Then it rebounded with its best win of the group, a 31-14 victory over Tennessee. A 4-1 start is nothing to sneer at, no matter the opponents.
And even though the Jaguars cooled off after their quick start — Jacksonville went 3-5 over its next eight games — their early-season work got the job done. Lawrence’s solid rookie year was bolstered by an immediate connection with receiver Laviska Shenault Jr., who recorded 90 receptions, helping earn Jacksonville a 9-8 record and a wild-card berth in the AFC.
And the Jaguars’ story didn’t end there: They went on to win a playoff game, too. More on that later, but not a bad start for the Lawrence-Meyer duo in Jacksonville.
Are the Chicago Bears making a mistake starting the season with Andy Dalton at quarterback? Well, in Simulation No. 13,330, they did.
Chicago started the season ugly, going 1-3 before pulling the plug on Dalton and inserting Fields. Initially, the move didn’t look like it made much of a difference. Fields dropped his debut against the Raiders and then had brutal back-to-back games against the Packers and Buccaneers, taking a combined 11 sacks and guiding the offense to just 10 total points in the pair of losses. Sitting at 1-6, Chicago fans began turning their eyes to 2022. And then the version of Fields that Ohio State fans have enjoyed over the past few years emerged, and the winds shifted at Soldier Field.
Ryan Clark explains why No. 11 pick Justin Fields has what it takes to be the standout player from the 2021 draft class.
First, it was a surprise win at home against the 49ers. Then came a road victory at Heinz Field against the Steelers. Next was an upset over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, followed by a brushing aside of the Lions. And the Bears weren’t done just yet.
Entering Week 18, the 7-9 Bears headed to Minneapolis to take on the 8-8 Vikings, with both teams still in the running for a wild-card spot. It was receiver Darnell Mooney (two touchdowns) and safety Eddie Jackson (one interception off Vikings QB Kirk Cousins) who stole the show, and in the end, the Bears won 20-16, pulling off an incredible season turnaround that yielded a playoff berth despite a sub-.500 record. But a playoff berth is a playoff berth.
Seahawks fall apart
Coach Pete Carroll and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron tried it all. They tried to “let Russ cook.” They tried to run the ball. They tried everything in between. It didn’t matter. The Seattle Seahawks couldn’t recapture the magic of their early 2020 offense, while a questionable pass rush and a lacking secondary betrayed them on defense.
In this simulation, Seattle started the year with a loss … then another loss … and then another. By midseason, the team was the shock of the league, staring at an 0-8 record. Six of those losses were by one score, though the Seahawks were pummeled in Week 6 by the Steelers in a 29-point loss. As the season passed its midway point, no other team stood winless.
Seattle lost again in Week 10 to drop to 0-9, ensuring a losing season for the first time since 2011, before finally getting a 26-20 win in Week 11 against Arizona.
In some ways, things only got worse as they got better. The ball started bouncing the Seahawks’ way down the stretch, and Seattle ultimately closed the book on the season at 5-12. But it wasn’t enough to avoid major shakeup on the coaching staff and the roster — and it was enough to lose out on a top-two draft pick.
Panthers earn the No. 1 overall pick
There was a moment, early in the season, when it looked like the Sam Darnold experiment was going to work out and that offensive coordinator Joe Brady had fixed the mess that Adam Gase (Darnold’s former coach in New York) had made. The Carolina Panthers opened the season 4-1, first beating Darnold’s old Jets team in Week 1 and then going on to earn wins against the Saints, Texans and Eagles (with a loss to the Cowboys). But those opponents were not that tough, and the 4-1 record was a mirage.
Coach Matt Rhule’s team would win just one more game the rest of the way (against the Falcons) and end the season at 5-12 and in a dramatic five-way tie for the NFL’s worst record. Carolina needed to lose in its final week to win the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker and earn the No. 1 overall pick — and it did, as the Bucs beat Carolina 33-7.
As it turned out, the league did figure out quarterback Lamar Jackson. Or at least it figured out Jackson when he is without any receiving weapons and his starting running back J.K. Dobbins. The injury woes that plagued the Baltimore Ravens‘ receiving corps in the preseason continued all through the year, as the team scuffled to a 2-5 start and couldn’t recover to save the season.
A 7-10 lost season means GM Eric DeCosta enters the 2022 offseason with the same mission he had entering this past one: Get Jackson more receiving weapons, and keep them healthy.
Epic closing stretch from Jameis Winston pushes Saints into postseason
Through 12 weeks of the season, the New Orleans Saints sat at 5-6 and in third place in the NFC South. There were rumbles of quarterback controversy, as some fans wondered if coach Sean Payton should make the switch to Taysom Hill for the stretch run. Eight NFC teams had a better record than New Orleans at that point.
But Payton stuck by Winston — and it paid off. The interceptions that plagued Winston both in Tampa Bay and during the early half of the season dissipated — though they never left entirely, let’s be real — and Winston’s downfield throwing to a healthy Michael Thomas set the New Orleans offense alight. The result? A six-game winning streak to close the season, including an epic 48-37 victory over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. The Saints would make the playoffs at 11-6 in their first year since Drew Brees retired.
The Buccaneers still won the division, but the Saints went into the wild-card round as a road favorite and won their first matchup, beating the Cowboys.
Late push from Cowboys wins them the NFC East
Through Week 13, it appeared as though Washington would win the NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys scuffled to a 6-6 start, while Washington had a two-game lead at 8-4.
But in Week 14, the tide turned as Dallas beat Washington in Landover, 27-20, then took care of business in East Rutherford a week later with a 17-10 win over the Giants. The Cowboys headed home and beat Washington for the second time in three weeks in a 38-10 rout before finishing off the four-game win streak with a 27-24 win over the Cardinals, sealing the division. Washington, for its part, closed out the year with six straight losses.
But as mentioned above, Dallas’ comeback and playoff berth yielded no postseason success, as it lost 24-16 at home to the Saints.
Marcus Spears and Sam Acho debate who is facing more pressure this year between Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott.
Colts dominate in the regular season, stumble in postseason
The Carson Wentz rebound experiment? Oh yeah, it happened. And then some. This was Wentz and Frank Reich — who would win Coach of the Year — doing work like it was 2017 again. The Indianapolis Colts ripped off wins in their first six games and won nine of its first 10 overall.
But it wasn’t only Wentz who impressed; the defense shined bright for most of the year, too. Indy held five different opponents — the Titans, Ravens, Jets, Jaguars and Raiders — to single-digit points. Defensive tackle DeForest Buckner was a driving force for the unit, recording a career-high 14 sacks. Indy’s defense allowed just 17.3 points per game during the regular season, No. 1 in the NFL and slightly better than the Buccaneers, Browns and Rams. The Colts ultimately went 13-4 and won the AFC South.
Here’s a quick look at how the final regular-season standings played out for all 32 teams:
But a shocker awaited Indy in the playoffs. The Colts tied for the best record in the NFL but lost out on the No. 1 overall seed via a tiebreaker, meaning they’d host division-rival Jacksonville in the wild-card round as a double-digit favorite. Indianapolis had previously shut out the Jags in Week 10. But Trevor Lawrence gave Indianapolis a preview of what the years to come might look like, downing the Colts 23-17. (The Jaguars would lose the following week to the Bills, 31-14.)
Jimmy Garoppolo hung on to the starting QB job for longer than you might have thought, as the San Francisco 49ers played well for most of the season. That is, until a three-game losing streak to the Vikings, Seahawks and Bengals from Weeks 12 to 14. San Francisco scored just 14 points in each of the latter two games, and coach Kyle Shanahan decided to make a change.
He went with Lance full-time, and the switch paid dividends instantly. The 49ers rattled off four-straight wins to close the season, finished at 12-5 and easily won an NFC West division that turned out to be less competitive than most figured in the preseason. The Niners’ 27.7 points scored per game during the regular season were second to only the Bills’ average (30.9).
Lance narrowly outdueled his draft classmate Justin Fields in the wild-card round, winning 20-17. But the 49ers ran into a juggernaut in Green Bay, the NFC North champs. Packers running back Aaron Jones caught two touchdowns in a 28-23 win for Green Bay.
Browns best Chiefs in postseason
The Cleveland Browns lived up to the hype. They didn’t go all the way, but they delivered a successful season and a knockout punch to the best team in football. Cleveland took advantage of a soft start to their schedule, winning six straight games between Weeks 2 and 7 against the Texans, Bears, Vikings, Chargers, Cardinals and Broncos. The Browns finished 12-5, with QB Baker Mayfield having his best season yet as a pro and finishing fifth in QBR. Plus, a rejuvenated Odell Beckham Jr. led the team in receiving.
It was that Mayfield-OBJ connection that drove a 35-30 barn-burner victory over the Steelers in the wild-card round, but it was the rebuilt defense that earned the surprising 20-12 victory over the Chiefs in the divisional round and punched the Browns’ ticket to the AFC Championship Game. Cornerback Greedy Williams hauled in a big interception off Patrick Mahomes, and edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney forced a crucial fumble. Kansas City, for what it’s worth, went 11-6 and won the AFC West, just like we all expected.
The Browns’ story, ultimately, ended in defeat. Facing the AFC’s No. 1-seeded Bills, the offense crumbled trying to keep up with Josh Allen, as Mayfield threw two picks in a 27-13 loss. Buffalo was off to the Super Bowl for the first time since 1993.
Green Bay knocks out defending champs
It was not a given that Aaron Rodgers‘ 2020 MVP campaign would translate to another stellar season, but it did. The Packers finished 11-6 and ended up exactly where they were last year: facing Tom Brady in the NFC Championship Game. Only this time, Rodgers outdueled Brady and the NFC’s No. 1-ranked Buccaneers.
Rodgers threw four touchdown passes — two to receiver Davante Adams, and two to tight end Robert Tonyan — as Green Bay beat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, 39-26. The win put Rodgers back in the Super Bowl with a chance to earn another ring. Here’s a quick snapshot of how the first three rounds of the playoffs played out:
They did it! The Buffalo Bills won their first-ever Super Bowl, capping an incredible season in which they looked like serious contenders from beginning to end. Buffalo finished 13-4 in the regular season, and QB Josh Allen beat out Patrick Mahomes for the league’s MVP award.
Buffalo lost a crazy 45-42 game to the Patriots in Week 13 (Patriots QB Mac Jones‘ future is bright!) and then never lost again. In the Super Bowl, Allen opened the game with a touchdown to receiver Stefon Diggs, and running back Devin Singletary ran for two more scores. Cornerback Tre’Davious White jumped an interception with four minutes left in the fourth quarter to seal the deal. Final score: 27-17.
But the most important stat of all? Buffalo-area grocery stores sold out of every folding table in stock, as fans descended on the Orchard Park parking lot the night of the victory, even in the dead of Western New York winter.
Will the Bills win it all in real life? Well, we can’t guarantee that. According to our 20,000 FPI simulations, they have a 9.4% chance of taking home the Lombardi Trophy, the third-best odds in the NFL behind the Chiefs (19.2%) and Buccaneers (14.1%). But no matter what, Buffalo will always have Simulation No. 13,330.
Jameis Winston will definitely be the New Orleans Saints‘ Week 1 starter, Sean Payton confirmed Tuesday. Whether that game will be played in New Orleans or Arlington, Texas, remains to be determined.
Payton said the Saints are leaning toward staying in the Dallas area for the next several weeks until they are able to return home following the destruction of Hurricane Ida. And there is a good chance they will “host” their Week 1 game against the Green Bay Packers in Dallas’ AT&T Stadium if New Orleans is unable to host the game in the Caesars Superdome.
“And we’ve got enough fans in this area and Houston and certainly from Northern Louisiana that we think that would be something that’s very realistic,” Payton added.
Neither the Superdome nor the Saints’ practice facility in Metairie, Louisiana, sustained much damage from the hurricane. But it could take weeks for power and other services to return throughout the area. That could make it difficult for New Orleans to host the Sept. 12 game, in addition to the staffing and security that will be required.
Payton said the team is making contingency plans to set up somewhere else through Week 4 — then “reel it back” from there if they are able to return home sooner.
Payton said the team initially considered Oxnard, California, where the Cowboys regularly host their training camp and where the Saints spent a week during training camp in 2011. But that didn’t make sense, considering the Saints’ Week 2 and 3 games will be all the way across the country at Carolina and at New England.
They also considered Indianapolis, which is out because of a Guns N’ Roses concert, and The Greenbrier resort in West Virginia, which is expected to host the San Francisco 49ers in Week 2.
Payton said an indoor practice space is also a priority. And they would have ample resources in the Dallas area, where they could practice inside AT&T Stadium if needed — and where both SMU and TCU have offered to share their facilities and resources.
On Monday, Saints owner Gayle Benson announced a initial donation of $1 million to support those impacted by the storm in Louisiana and the Gulf Coast. On Tuesday, others around from the NFL announced donations as well, including Atlanta Falcons owner Arthur Blank, who announced two grants totaling $1 million to the the American Red Cross and the Greater New Orleans Foundation and Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Leonard Fournette, who tweeted he is donating $100,000 to help his hometown of New Orleans.
While the Saints’ relocation because of the storm has been a rushed decision, the team’s quarterback choice was in the making for months. Payton said he ultimately chose Winston over Taysom Hill because “he’s done a great job, he’s earned that.”
“The No. 1 thing is leading your offense and moving the ball and scoring points. And we feel like he’s got a unique skill set with his arm talent – boy, he can get the ball down the field,” Payton said. “He’s done a really good job of working through some of the progressions.”
Payton said both Winston and Hill “competed their tails off”
“I can’t tell you enough how much I appreciate how those guys have handled it,” said Payton, who added that “we feel good about that room,” which also includes rookie fourth-round draft pick Ian Book and possibly veteran Trevor Siemian, depending on the results of roster cuts and practice squad transactions.
Payton said he heard a lot of questions about how if the Saints chose Hill as their quarterback, they wouldn’t be able to keep using him in his versatile QB/RB/TE/WR role. But Payton said, “We couldn’t make the decision just based on that. We wanted to look at it completely from an open eyes standpoint.”
Payton said he had a “real good dialogue” with Hill, even though he knows it was “challenging and disappointing” for him to lose out on the starting QB job. But Payton said he still expects Hill to be a big part of the offense in his unique role.
“I’ve got a very clear vision relative to how he’s gonna help us this year,” Payton said. “Those two are both gonna be extremely important if we’re to play well and win games this year.”
On top of everything else the Saints are dealing with right now, Payton said it has been especially difficult to make roster cuts while players and their family members are spending time together in their Dallas-area hotel.
Among the most notable roster moves the Saints are expected to make, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter that receiver Michael Thomas will miss the first five games of the season on the physically-unable-to-perform list and running back Devonta Freeman will be released.
Wide receiver Michael Thomas is expected to miss the first five games of the season, as the New Orleans Saints plan to place him on the physically unable to perform list, sources told ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Players on the PUP list cannot begin practicing until the first six weeks of the regular season have passed, but Thomas is required to miss only five games since the Saints have a bye in Week 6. The first game he could possibly play is at the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football in Week 7.
Thomas has been sidelined since he underwent ankle surgery in June, but Saints coach Sean Payton said recently that he was “ahead of schedule” in his recovery — which led to optimism that he will be back as soon as he’s eligible.
The late timing of Thomas’ surgery was a point of consternation with the team. Payton said at the beginning of training camp, “Obviously we would’ve liked that to happen earlier than later. And quite honestly, it should’ve.”
Thomas then took offense on social media to reports that had cited sources placing the blame on him. However, tensions appeared to ease earlier this month when Payton and Thomas had a productive phone conversation and Thomas joined the team on the road for its preseason opener at Baltimore.
Thomas missed a total of nine games last year after he originally suffered the injury in the final minutes of Week 1. He came back to play in Week 9, then went on the injured reserve list from Weeks 15 to 17 to heal up before returning again for the playoffs.
He finished with 40 catches for 438 yards in seven regular-season games and didn’t catch his first touchdown pass until the playoffs. Schefter reported after the season that surgery was expected because Thomas had torn the deltoid, among other ligaments, in his left ankle.
The Saints should lean heavily on second-year breakout candidate Marquez Callaway and fourth-year receiver Tre’Quan Smith among others in Thomas’ absence. Smith has been sidelined for several weeks as well, but ESPN’s Monday Night Football broadcasters said he is expected back soon from a hamstring injury.
The New Orleans Saints got back to work Monday at their temporary home in Dallas after Hurricane Ida devastated Southern Louisiana on Sunday.
Saints coach Sean Payton said he was unaware of any significant damage to the team’s practice facility in Metairie, Louisiana. But he expects the team to practice away from home next week because of widespread power outages and other damage throughout the region.
Payton said he did not yet know about the status of the Caesars Superdome or the Saints’ Week 1 home opener against the Green Bay Packers on Sept. 12.
“Obviously we’ll have a Plan B,” Payton said. “There are a lot of other things probably from a priority standpoint that are more important for our city. But that all being said, we fully anticipate starting the regular season with Green Bay, and then the question would be where that game is at. (But) I don’t see it being in Green Bay.”
The Saints evacuated to Dallas on Saturday, with owner Gayle Benson chartering two flights for players, staff members and their families. They will practice Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday inside the Dallas Cowboys‘ AT&T Stadium.
It’s unclear if they will remain in Dallas beyond that. Players were already scheduled to have four days off from Thursday-Sunday at the end of this week.
“I kind of see these guys Wednesday taking some time away. A lot of these guys might head back to where they’re from originally,” Payton said. “And then me on Wednesday telling ’em, ‘Hey, I’ll see you guys Sunday night and here’s where we’re gonna be.’ We just gotta fill in that last blank. But I don’t see that realistically being in New Orleans.”
Payton and veteran players Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis all stressed that their first thoughts are for everyone’s families and the safety of everyone back in the New Orleans area.
As for their own situation in Dallas, they were glad to have the ability to set up a smooth operation so quickly. They thanked Benson for keeping families together and thanked Cowboys owners Jerry Jones and Stephen Jones for the assistance.
Unfortunately, these sorts of adjustments are nothing new for the Saints, who had to evacuate New Orleans for an entire season after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and have moved practices out of town multiple times over the years.
Payton and Saints general manager Mickey Loomis quickly ran through their options last Thursday night before settling on Dallas. Another option was Indianapolis, where the Saints have evacuated in the past. But Payton mentioned that an upcoming Guns N’ Roses concert ruled it out.
Although Payton said he doesn’t like the circumstances, he has always said that he likes the bonding and focus the team has displayed in similar situations.
“Listen, we’ve done it,” Payton said. “And there’s something about the challenge that I think, I don’t know, I kind of like. Look, I don’t like being misplaced, and I don’t like when players are away from their homes or any of those things. But you focus on the things you can control. And just in the short period of time here, there’s a weight room in the hotel, it’s modest at best, but then we have the opportunity at SMU if we want the Olympic lifts.
We’ve got a fantastic stadium that we’ll practice in the next three days. We’ve got the whole ballroom set up at the hotel we’re at with more than enough space and meeting rooms. A few of these ballrooms we could play a game in if we needed to.
“Look, once you’ve done this a few times there are some — everyone kind of knows what we expect in the training room area, this is what we expect for the meals, this is what we’re used to. And everyone kind of goes about doing their jobs. And then you do get, I think, you get a little bit more focused when something like this happens as opposed to less.”
One thing Payton said he does not like about the timing, however, is that roster cuts are scheduled to take place on Tuesday while many players and their affected families will be together at the team’s hotel in Dallas.
“I brought it up in the team meeting this morning: ‘Man, I’m proud of how we’ve handled this, it’s great that you’re here with your families. There’s a number of positives that we can take from this, that we were able to get safely out of harm’s way,'” Payton said. “But I don’t like the environment relative to in the next 24 hours reducing the roster with all their families here. I think that’s challenging. I just said, ‘Hey, we just gotta understand that there’s a lot of good about us being here, but there are challenges when it comes to jobs that are on the line. And we’re gonna do our best to take care of everyone.'”
The New Orleans Saints are planning to practice at the home of the Dallas Cowboys for three days this week after evacuating because of Hurricane Ida, a person with knowledge of the decision told The Associated Press on Sunday.
The team is scheduled to hold workouts Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday at AT&T Stadium before taking a break heading into the regular season, according to the person who spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the club wasn’t discussing its plans publicly. The Saints are supposed to open at home Sept. 12 against Green Bay.
Ida made landfall south of New Orleans on Sunday as a powerful Category 4 hurricane with winds of 150 mph, one of the most powerful storms ever to strike the U.S.
Fears of the storm first led the Saints to push up the kickoff for their Saturday preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals from 8 p.m. ET to 1 p.m. ET before the game was ultimately canceled.
The arrival of Ida came 16 years to the day after Hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. The Saints were forced to move for the entire 2005 season, setting up operations in San Antonio while playing home games there and in Baton Rouge at LSU. New Orleans also played one game at Giants Stadium.
Last year, the Saints stayed home when Hurricane Zeta hit New Orleans in late October, with coaches and other team officials riding out the storm under generator power at the team facility.
Information from ESPN staff writer Mike Triplett was used in this report.
Although the battle was close for a while, the 27-year-old Winston arguably offered more upside than the 31-year-old Taysom Hill — and definitely made a stronger closing argument with his dynamic display Monday night.
Still, the Saints’ decision hardly means all questions have been eliminated as they head into a season without Drew Brees for the first time in 16 years.
Here’s a look at four questions that stand out most:
A more vertical Saints offense?
It didn’t take long to see the element Winston brings to Payton’s offense. His first of two deep touchdown passes to receiver Marquez Callaway on Monday traveled 53.3 yards in the air according to NFL Next Gen Stats — the longest of any Saints TD since 2016.
When asked if Callaway was his first read, Winston’s face lit up.
“Absolutely,” Winston said. “As soon as I saw the safety cut [toward a shallow receiver], I’m letting it go. I don’t like missing those opportunities.”
We saw several similar throws from Winston throughout training camp, and we also saw Payton design a 56-yard TD pass from Winston on a trick play in the playoffs last season.
Conversely, we didn’t see many of those throws in Brees’ later years. In 2020, the Saints threw 29 passes that traveled 20-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage, according to ESPN Stats & Information — fewer than any team since 2014.
Obviously there is more to playing quarterback than arm strength. Brees is Exhibit A. But that doesn’t mean Payton isn’t excited to add some old tricks back into his playbook from when Brees was routinely throwing for 5,000-plus yards per season.
Almost every time Payton has been asked about Winston over the past two years, he has mentioned his “arm talent” and his leadership as two traits that stand out most. Several Saints receivers have also expressed excitement with knowing Winston might let it loose down the field even if they aren’t the first read.
Winston didn’t actually rely that much on deep balls during five years with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he ranked 16th, 15th, eighth and 14th in the NFL in percentage of passes thrown 20-plus yards from 2015 to 2018. But he ranked second in 2019 at 16% while leading the league with 5,109 passing yards in his first year with aggressive offensive coach Bruce Arians. Of course, Winston also infamously became the first QB to throw at least 30 TD passes and 30 interceptions in that same season.
A riskier Saints offense?
Therein lies the rub. Winston threw 88 interceptions and lost 23 fumbles in 70 games with the Bucs. The Saints need to make sure he stays on the right side of that risk-reward formula.
So far, Winston has said and done the right things — starting with his decision to join the Saints last year to get a “Harvard education in quarterback school” under Payton, Brees and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr.
Winston said the No. 1 thing he learned from Brees was focusing on making the right decision instead of trying to force big results. And you can count his total number of interceptions on one hand through four weeks of camp, while he has made a habit of checking down to safer throws (he did have a slightly underthrown deep ball picked in the first preseason game, though it bounced out of receiver Lil’Jordan Humphrey‘s hands).
“Sean Payton told us, ‘Jameis will not play the same way he played in Tampa Bay, I assure you of that. I will not allow him to, and our system will not allow him to,'” said ESPN analyst Louis Riddick, who had a pregame chat with Payton as part of the Monday Night Football broadcast.
“The reason why you should be optimistic is simply because, one, Jameis is a good quarterback,” Riddick said. “He always has been. He just needed to be better as far as his decision-making is concerned. And that’s not always just about him. That may also be a function of the offenses he has played in. The other reason to be optimistic is that he is in a tried-and-true and productive system that has been proven to work.”
What does this mean for Hill?
This is obviously a disappointment for the fifth-year pro, who has always stressed that his goal is to become a starting quarterback, despite his eagerness to help the team in so many other ways as a RB/TE/WR/kick returner/special teams coverage ace.
Hill went all-in to achieve his goal this offseason, gearing his workouts and practice reps solely toward playing QB. Listed at 6-foot-2, 221 pounds, Hill bulked up a bit in past years to take on some of those extra duties. This year he said he slimmed down to 215 to gain flexibility because “if I’m not going to be blocking defensive ends and backers and safeties and stuff, then I didn’t need to carry the extra weight.”
Still, it’s hard to imagine Hill won’t gamely step back into a similar role. Maybe the Saints won’t ask him to do as much blocking or special teams work. But they will almost certainly keep designing packages for him as a read-option QB, runner and pass-catcher after he has racked up 613 rushing yards, 332 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons.
That versatility is a big reason the Saints signed Hill to a two-year, $21 million deal as a restricted free agent in 2020. And you could argue that role is more important than ever since the Saints lost Brees, wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders and tight ends Jared Cook and Josh Hill this offseason — and top WR Michael Thomas is currently out because of an ankle injury.
As for the future, Hill will be an unrestricted free agent in 2022 and may have to decide whether to keep pursuing QB opportunities elsewhere or potentially embrace his “slash” role on a more permanent basis.
What does this mean for fantasy?
Winston’s emergence didn’t shake things up much in ESPN’s fantasy football rankings. Mike Clay, who produces ESPN’s projections, said he already had Winston making 12 starts — and only bumped that up to 14 because of the risk of a potential QB switch at some point. Clay only moved Winston up to QB 24.
“He can prove to be a fantasy steal,” Clay said. “But at the same time, his pass-catchers remain a question mark and he’s going to lose occasional snaps to Hill.”
Winston’s value increased more with analysts Matthew Berry and Field Yates, since both thought Payton might go with Hill to start the season. But neither was ready to make Winston a top-15 QB since he doesn’t add much fantasy value through rushing yardage — and since he could cede snaps to Hill in certain packages.
However, everyone agrees Winston enhances the value of New Orleans’ pass-catchers — especially running back Alvin Kamara, who is safer as the consensus No. 3 overall pick. And Callaway has soared into the top 50 among receivers after his breakout summer.
METAIRIE, La. — The Saints and Cardinals will kick off seven hours earlier than originally scheduled for Saturday’s preseason finale to avoid any complications with a possible hurricane headed toward New Orleans.
The game will now begin at 1 p.m. ET inside the Caesars Superdome. Tropical Storm Ida is on track to make landfall in Southern Louisiana on Sunday night, with the possibility that it could strengthen into a hurricane by then.
The Saints announced the change as a way of “making proper and safe preparations regarding the potential landfall of Hurricane Ida and following consultation and agreement with City of New Orleans officials, the National Weather Service, Homeland Security and the NFL.”
These sorts of adjustments are nothing new for the Saints, who had to evacuate New Orleans for an entire season following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and have moved practices out of town multiple times over the years.
Last year, the Saints stayed home when Hurricane Zeta hit New Orleans in late October, with coaches and other team officials riding out the storm under generator power at the team facility.