Budgam, Oct 21: Senior National Conference (NC) leader and Srinagar MP Aga Ruhullah Mehdi’s decision to stay away from the Budgam Assembly by-election campaign has stirred political discussions across central Kashmir.
His absence, many believe, could affect the party’s traditional vote base in the Shia-dominated belt of Budgam though analysts caution that the actual impact will depend on Ruhullah’s next political move.
Ruhullah’s silence comes at a time when his cousin, Aga Syed Mehmood, is contesting the by-election as the NC candidate. Despite their shared family and political lineage, the two leaders have displayed visible differences in recent months.
Ruhullah, who has often positioned himself as a conscience-driven politician, distanced himself after Mehmood’s remarks suggesting that Ruhullah would campaign for him. In a sharp response earlier this week, Ruhullah said his “loyalty lies with conscience, not convenience,” making it clear that he would not campaign merely for party symbolism.
Political observers describe Ruhullah’s decision as strategic silence rather than outright dissent. “Aga Ruhullah’s absence carries symbolic weight because he commands significant respect among youth and traditional NC supporters in Budgam,” said political analyst Dr. Shabir Ahmad.
“However, unless he directly endorses another candidate particularly from the PDP or an independent front his absence alone may not split the NC vote in a decisive way,” he added.
The NC campaign, led by senior leaders from Srinagar and Budgam, has continued with visible enthusiasm, but insiders admit that Ruhullah’s participation could have boosted morale and unity. “People associate the Aga family with Budgam’s political identity. Without Ruhullah’s presence, some loyal voters may feel emotionally detached,” said a senior NC functionary who requested anonymity.
At the same time, the party is banking on Aga Syed Mehmood’s administrative experience and personal rapport to consolidate support. Mehmood has served in various ministerial roles and retains influence in parts of Beerwah, Chadoora, and central Budgam.
Meanwhile, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), whose candidate Aga Muntazir Mehdi is seen as a strong challenger, is quietly counting on Ruhullah’s absence to tilt the momentum in its favor.
A senior PDP strategist remarked, “Even neutrality from Ruhullah means reduced mobilization for the NC and that gives an indirect advantage to us.”
For now, Ruhullah has not endorsed any candidate or party. Sources close to him suggest he may maintain neutrality throughout the campaign, focusing instead on his parliamentary responsibilities and outreach in Srinagar.
But his final stance whether neutrality, subtle backing, or post-poll positioning could shape Budgam’s outcome and influence the NC’s internal power balance ahead of future elections.
While the National Conference remains confident of retaining Budgam, Aga Ruhullah Mehdi’s absence has exposed quiet tensions within the party’s ranks. His next move whether to remain silent, speak, or support may ultimately decide not only the by-election dynamics but also the future course of Shia politics in central Kashmir. (JKNS)
