On January 5, Srinagar recorded a maximum temperature of just 1.5°C, with temperatures staying near or below freezing (0°C) for most of the day. Despite receiving 19.0 mm of precipitation, the city recorded only 3 inches of snow, much less than the 8 inches recorded on December 27 during a similar precipitation amount (19.9 mm) when temperatures were slightly higher at 3.3°C, but most of the day hovered around 1°C.
Something similar happened in other plains of Kashmir.
This phenomenon can be explained by a weather condition known as *temperature inversion* and other factors like the nature of precipitation and atmospheric layers.
What is Temperature Inversion?
Temperature inversion occurs when the air near the ground is colder than the air at higher altitudes, reversing the usual atmospheric temperature pattern. On January 5, a warm layer of air, with temperatures between 2°C and 4°C, was present in the upper atmosphere. This warm layer caused snow falling from the clouds to melt into rain as it passed through.
However, at ground level, temperatures were near or below freezing in some areas, which led to two outcomes:
• In areas where ground temperatures were slightly above freezing, the precipitation fell as *rain* directly.
• In areas where ground temperatures were below freezing, the rain froze partially on contact, creating *freezing rain*, and may have resulted in *ice pellets* as well.
Why Did Snow Accumulation Differ?
The warm layer of winds at higher altitudes directly affected the type of precipitation and its density:
• On January 5: Snow that managed to reach the ground was wet and dense due to partial melting in the warm layer. This reduced snow accumulation despite similar precipitation levels. Wet snow compacts more quickly, resulting in lower snow depth.
• On December 27: The atmosphere from the clouds to the ground was entirely below freezing, allowing snow to fall directly without melting. This snow was dry and fluffy, which accumulates more and creates a thicker layer.
Why Did It Rain in Plains & Why Did it Snow Later?
In plains of Kashmir, the warm atmospheric layer caused precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow. As the rain continued, a process known as evaporative cooling occurred.
Evaporative Cooling Explained:
When rain falls through dry or unsaturated or warm air, some of it evaporates, absorbing heat from the surrounding air. This cooling effect gradually lowers the air temperature. Once the temperature drops to freezing (0°C), the rain transitions to snow.
This happened particularly during 06 Jan evening when temperatures in the above warm layer may have fell to near freezing level due to persistent rainfall, thus later transitioning to all snow.
What Would Have Happened Without the Warm Layer?
If the warm layer of winds had not been present:
• Srinagar could have received up to 8 inches of snow.
• North Kashmir plains might have recorded 6 to 12 inches of snow.
• Shopian could have seen a foot of snow.
• Anantnag and Kulgam plains, which were largely missed by snow clouds, might have still received 1 – 2 inches of snow.
Regards: Faizan Arif, Kashmir Weather
